I hate to be a buzzkill, but the odds are he will win in 17 days. We need to make preparations for the long and difficult road that faces us. I don’t know what that means, maybe you do.
I keep seeing posts that polls show it’s 50-50 but polymarket has Trump’s odds at 60, Harris’ at 40 with over $2B in wagers. Terrifying.
Many people who gamble big money go by past divergences between polls done before, and exit polls done after. These can vary between 5% to 10% , which is important when the published count is almost 50:50 in some states.
Many US states violate UN practices for free and fair ballot counting, and while this is blindly ignored for decades, it shows up in the odds. People in the USA tend to talk about this as the shy republican effect, and other names.
At the same time, I do not trust the polls being done now, because most people do not answer phone, text or email about asking, given there are so many scam polls out, so I have to wonder how this skews the results.
I would totally use the bookie odds and ignore the polls
Polls also only try to measure public opinion and don’t quantify the very real effects that the vast toolkit of dirty tricks play in the election process, including whatever October surprises are lurking around the corner.
It’s 4 accounts’ bets that put Trump’s odds at 60, likely being done to influence people’s perceptions about Trump’s chances. It only took ~$30M to tip the scales to 60, which is a very cheap way to advertise for Trump considering the billionaires who support him. https://www.wsj.com/finance/betting-election-pro-trump-ad74aa71
